5 Jun 2023

Weather: Low Pressure Area To Form Over Southeast Arabian Sea, May Trigger Monsoon Current Over Mainland

A cyclonic circulation has come up over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighbouring Lakshadweep region. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen further in the subsequent 48 hours. This may also trigger the monsoon current over mainland, to start with Lakshadweep and Kerala.

Acciording to Skymet Weather, little more clarity will emerge once the system becomes low pressure/ well marked low pressure. Environmental conditions are quite favorable over this part of Arabian Sea for intensification of such systems to become tropical storm over a period of 4-5 days. 

Arabian Sea weather systems generally don't augur well for commencement of monsoon stream 

But Arabian Sea weather systems  generally do not augur well for the commencement of monsoon stream over Peninsular India. Some of these systems move parallel to the West Coast, keeping a safe distance from the landmass. In such a scenario, rainfall gets confined to merely along state of Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan region.

Interior parts of Peninsula, covering Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana observe least weather activity. In case of these systems drifting over open waters, far from the coastline, the situation worsens further. The rainfall occurs only over Kerala and Lakshadweep and rest of West Coast witness isolated weather activity.

Such systems have the potential to become tropical storms. If so, few of them do have a history of impacting Konkan and Gujarat region. Majority of these storms track over open waters and head towards Pakistan, Yemen and Oman. 

Light rain possible over Tamil Nadu, Kerala

During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with a few heavy spells is possible over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and South interior Karnataka.

Light to moderate rain with one or two intense spells is possible over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Light to moderate rain is possible over remaining Karnataka, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, and isolated pockets of Western Himalayas.

Dust storms and rain are possible over parts of Rajasthan, parts of Punjab, Haryana isolated pockets of Delhi NCR.

Heatwave conditions are expected over parts of Bihar, west Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

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