1 Jun 2024

NDA's Third Term Boosted by Southern States, Bengal, Odisha: Lok Sabha Exit Polls 2024

New Delhi: As the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 concluded this evening, exit polls predict a historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, only one poll suggests the NDA will surpass the 400-seat mark out of 543. The BJP is also predicted to fall short of its 370-seat target. 

Five exit polls forecast that the INDIA bloc will fall significantly short of the 285 seats predicted by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge.

An aggregate of seven exit polls indicates the NDA will secure 361 seats, while the INDIA bloc is expected to get 145 seats. The BJP's individual tally is projected at 311 seats, and the Congress at 63, an increase from the 52 seats it won in the last general election.

The highest number of seats for the NDA is predicted by India TV-CNX, with a range of 371-401, and the Opposition bloc expected to get 109-139 seats. Jan Ki Baat forecasts the NDA will win 362-392 seats, while the INDIA bloc will get 141-161 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar gives the NDA its lowest projection of 281-350 seats, with a corresponding higher range for the INDIA bloc at 145-201 seats.

NDA's improved performance in south and Bengal

All exit polls unanimously agree on the NDA's improved performance in the south and in Bengal.

In Andhra Pradesh, the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu is predicted to yield 18 of the state's 25 seats for the NDA. Karnataka is also expected to vote overwhelmingly for the BJP, despite its preference for the Congress at the state level. In Telangana, exit polls indicate the BJP is likely to secure over half of the state's 17 seats, despite the Congress's assembly poll victory and the decline of K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi.

BJP predicted to open its account in Tamil Nadu and Kerala 

The BJP is predicted to open its account in Tamil Nadu with at least two seats and in Kerala with one seat.

In Bengal, the BJP is expected to increase its 2019 tally from 18 to 22 seats, surpassing the state's powerhouse, Trinamool Congress, which could end up with just 19 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats.

In Odisha, the BJP is projected to win 15 of the state's 21 seats, reducing Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal to a marginal presence.

BJP to maintain its dominance in strongholds 

The BJP is also expected to maintain its dominance in strongholds such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, and the national capital. In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party and ally Congress are again predicted to win no seats. However, in Punjab, where they had a friendly contest, the Congress is expected to win 5 seats and AAP 4 out of the state's 13 seats.

Oppn may win 7 seats in Bihar

Some changes are expected in Bihar, where the NDA had won 39 of 40 seats in the last election. The Opposition alliance, led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal, is projected to gain 7 seats. In Haryana and Rajasthan, where the Opposition scored no seats in 2019, they are expected to pick up three and a few seats, respectively.

In Maharashtra, one of the most challenging states to predict, the Opposition is expected to secure more than one-third of the seats, according to exit polls. The counting of votes is scheduled for Tuesday.

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