Buoyed by their performance in the Lok Sabha elections-2024 in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress are gearing up for the upcoming by-elections for ten assembly seats in the state. These by-elections are necessitated by the resignation of MLAs who won seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
Congress plans to claim at least three assembly seats in these by-elections. This move is expected to lead to tough negotiations on seat sharing between the two India Alliance parties, as SP is reportedly reluctant to allocate more than two seats to Congress.
In a recent strategy meeting led by UP Congress Chief Ajay Rai, feedback was gathered from party leaders about the on-ground atmosphere for Congress in the constituencies where by-elections are to be held.
Seat-Sharing Negotiations
According to sources, during the meeting, it was decided that Congress will not claim seats in Karhal, Sisamau, Katehari, Kundarki, and Milkipur, which were won by SP MLAs in the last assembly elections. Out of the remaining five seats, Congress aims to claim at least three seats.
In the 2022 UP assembly elections, Congress did not win any of these ten seats. The BJP secured 255 seats, SP won 111, and Congress managed just two seats. Among the seats now facing by-elections, SP held five, BJP three, and the RLD and Nishad Party each won one.
Potential Claims by Congress
Congress is considering staking its claim on the Meerapur, Majhawa, and Phulpur assembly seats. In 2022, Chandan Chauhan of RLD won the Meerapur seat but has since been elected to the Lok Sabha from Bijnor. Vinod Kumar Bind of the Nishad Party, an ally of BJP, won the Majhawa seat. SP also won the Phulpur seat. Congress believes it has a strong chance of winning these seats if it contests them with SP's support.
However, SP is reportedly unwilling to concede any of these three seats to Congress. An SP leader indicated that SP chief Akhilesh Yadav met potential candidates from Meerpur recently. Another leader suggested that Congress is unlikely to get Phulpur, as SP has a robust candidate in Mujtaba Siddiqui.
SP's Proposed Allocation
Sources reveal that SP is more inclined to allocate the Ghaziabad and Khair assembly seats to Congress. In 2022, BJP's Atul Garg won the Ghaziabad seat by a significant margin, with SP candidate Vishal Kumar finishing second and Congress in fourth place. In Khair, BJP's Anoop Pradhan won, with BSP second and RLD, supported by SP, in third. The Congress candidate's deposit was forfeited in Khair, highlighting their weak position there.
An SP leader in Delhi suggested that Congress might have to settle for just one seat, given the limited likelihood of them securing two strong seats where SP has a substantial presence.
Congress' Strategy
A Congress leader asserted that the seats won by SP in 2022 are rightfully theirs and that Congress will claim two to three of the remaining five seats. Internal discussions within Congress will determine the strongest candidates for these constituencies. SP national spokesperson Abdul Hafeez Gandhi confirmed that discussions on seat distribution will commence soon.
As the by-elections approach, the alliance's seat-sharing negotiations are crucial in determining their strategy and potential success in these key constituencies.
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