Jharkhand: Why Champai Soren didn't join BJP? Is it a political strategy?

Former Jharkhand Chief Minister Champai Soren has made a significant announcement regarding his political future. Declaring that he has no intention of retiring from politics, Soren revealed plans to form a new party after consulting with his supporters. 

Will not hesitate to partner with another political entity: Champai

Despite not having officially established the party yet, Soren has been vocal about his openness to alliances, stating that he would not hesitate to partner with another political entity if the opportunity arises. Given the current political climate in Jharkhand, there is speculation that Soren may align with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) either before or after the upcoming elections'

Champai's natural alliance could be with NDA

Champai Soren's decision to distance himself from the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and its leader, Hemant Soren, indicates a clear rift between the two. With the opposition parties in Jharkhand, including Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Left parties, possibly uniting under the India Alliance, it is likely that Champai Soren's natural alliance could be with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Why Didn't Soren Join the BJP?

While it wouldn't be surprising if Champai Soren eventually contests the elections as part of the NDA, the real question is why he hasn't joined the BJP outright. Before arriving in Ranchi, Soren spent three days in Delhi, leading to widespread speculation that he might join the BJP. However, upon his return to Ranchi, he surprised his supporters by announcing plans to form a new party instead.

Hemant Soren accused BJP of attempting to dismantle other parties

The BJP's strategy for the Jharkhand assembly elections centers around accusations of corruption within the Hemant Soren government. The party has been aggressively pushing this narrative. When rumors of Champai Soren joining the BJP began circulating, Hemant Soren responded by accusing the BJP of attempting to dismantle other parties. 

If Hemant Soren had managed to garner sympathy by portraying the BJP as deliberately undermining his political base, the BJP might not have gained the expected advantage from Champai Soren's involvement.

Lessons from Maharashtra

The BJP's reluctance to bring Champai Soren directly into the fold may be influenced by its recent experiences in Maharashtra. Despite bringing Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar into the party, the BJP struggled to make significant gains in the Lok Sabha elections. 

Champai will remain outside BJP while weakening Hemant Soren's voter base?

Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray not only maintained their influence but also succeeded in getting their candidates elected, largely due to a wave of sympathy. To avoid a similar scenario in Jharkhand, where the opposition could benefit from a sympathy wave, the BJP appears to have struck a deal with Champai Soren to remain outside the party while working to weaken Hemant Soren's voter base.

Potential Impact on JMM

Political analysts say Champai Soren can inflict damage on the JMM. Known as a prominent leader of Jharkhand's largest tribal community, Champai Soren has a longstanding reputation as a committed leader who has fought for Jharkhand's interests. Hemant Soren is well aware of the threat posed by Champai Soren's defection.

Champai can split tribal vote

Much like Bihar, where the BJP found an ally in Jitan Ram Manjhi, the party sees a similar opportunity in Jharkhand with Champai Soren. By splitting the tribal vote, Champai Soren could pave the way for a BJP victory. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP struggled to secure the support of tribal and Scheduled Caste voters. Leaders like Champai Soren could play a crucial role in strengthening the BJP's hold on these key voter segments.