The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress have decided to contest the upcoming Haryana Assembly Elections-2024 independently. This development suggests a potential division of the opposition vote against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has governed Haryana for the past 10 years. The failure of an alliance between the two INDIA partners—Congress and AAP—raises concerns about their ability to challenge the BJP effectively.
BJP's Declining Popularity in Haryana
Since the 2019 Haryana Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote share has decreased from 58% to 46%. Many political observers believe the upcoming Haryana assembly elections could be challenging for the BJP, citing several factors.
Anti-Incumbency Sentiment
After a decade in power, the BJP faces anti-incumbency sentiments. The aftermath of the farmers' movement, which saw significant participation from Haryana's farming community, has further fueled this sentiment. The BJP's stance during the movement was heavily criticized, adding to the anti-incumbency wave.
Agniveer Scheme Controversy
Haryana has a high representation of youth in the Indian Army. Congress is actively criticizing the Agniveer Yojana, a recruitment initiative by the BJP government. In response, the Modi government has made some adjustments to the scheme to mitigate potential electoral losses.
Wrestler Protests and Defections
Last year, Haryana’s wrestlers, including prominent figures like Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia, protested against then-BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh. The response of BJP leaders to this protest was not well-received in Haryana. Both Phogat and Punia have since joined Congress. Several leaders have left the BJP, signaling challenges for the saffron party.
AAP's Position in Haryana
Arvind Kejriwal, AAP's national leader, has roots in Haryana, specifically in the Kheda village of Hisar district. Kejriwal has often emphasized his Haryana identity in his political campaigns. His wife, Sunita Kejriwal, is actively campaigning for the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, portraying him as "Haryana's son."
At a recent rally, Sunita appealed to voters by highlighting Kejriwal's achievements and urging them to support "their son." Despite these efforts, AAP did not gain much traction in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in either Delhi or Haryana.
Alliance Politics in Haryana
Haryana's political landscape is shaped by various smaller parties that often play the role of kingmakers. In the last election, Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) was instrumental in forming the government.
However, the alliance between JJP and BJP has dissolved, and JJP has now aligned with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party. Since winning 47 seats in the 2014 Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP's influence has been waning, indicating a volatile political environment.
Caste Dynamics in Haryana Politics
Many believe that Haryana's elections are more influenced by caste than religion. The INDIA alliance has been emphasizing caste-based issues, such as the caste census. Historically, caste has played a significant role in Haryana's elections. Jat and non-Jat votes have been decisive in determining the outcome.
Jats, who make up 20-30% of Haryana's population, generally do not favor the BJP. The community has repeatedly demanded OBC status and expressed dissatisfaction with the BJP for not fulfilling their demands. Additionally, the Jats were significant participants in both the farmers' movement and the wrestlers' protest, indicating their current political leanings.
The decision of AAP and Congress to contest elections separately in Haryana has opened up the possibility of a divided opposition vote, potentially benefiting the BJP. However, the BJP faces considerable challenges. With the changing dynamics of alliances and the prominent role of caste in Haryana's politics, the upcoming elections are set to be highly unpredictable.
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