Major Battle in UP By-Election: Will Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal K Give a Tough Time to SP-Congress

The political landscape in Uttar Pradesh is heating up as parties prepare for the upcoming by-elections on 10 assembly seats. The competition is fierce, although the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress have not been able to form  a united front yet. But the Opposition is still aiming for a complete victory over the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

On the other hand, the BJP is equally determined to defeat the Opposition with a similar 10-0 margin. However, recent developments from within the state's political corridors suggest that both sides' ambitions might face unexpected challenges.

Though the dates for the by-elections have yet to be announced, the political maneuvering around these seats has already begun. Speculation is rife about shifting alliances and strategies that could dramatically impact the election's outcome. Certain emerging political figures and parties could create hurdles in the way of Opposition, potentially weakening their bid to defeat the BJP.

Pallavi Patel’s Role and the Rising Challenge

One such figure is Pallavi Patel of the Apna Dal (Kamerwadi faction), who is likely to pose a significant challenge for the Samajwadi Party. According to reports, Patel’s party is gearing up to contest the by-elections in alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party under the PDM (Progressive Democratic Movement) banner. Although Apna Dal (K) is expected to contest only one seat, the combined efforts of these three parties could disrupt the opposition’s plans.

Behind the scenes, two PDM meetings have already taken place to discuss strategy for the by-elections. Patel’s candidacy is most likely to be in the Phulpur assembly constituency, where she intends to directly challenge the Samajwadi Party. Her ambition to win this seat and counter the SP stems from past tensions between her party and the Samajwadi Party leadership.

The Backdrop of Tensions with Samajwadi Party

Pallavi Patel is currently serving as the MLA from the Sirathu constituency in Uttar Pradesh, where she made headlines by defeating Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya during the 2022 state elections. At that time, she ran on the SP symbol. However, the relationship between Apna Dal (K) and the Samajwadi Party has since soured. 

The rift became evident when Patel expressed interest in contesting certain seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, a request that SP leader Akhilesh Yadav reportedly denied. Yadav had publicly stated that the alliance between their parties was limited to the assembly elections, suggesting the partnership would not extend further.

This fallout has led to Patel's potential alliance with AIMIM and the Azad Samaj Party, which could significantly alter the dynamics of the by-elections. The combined forces of these smaller but significant political entities could draw voters away from the SP-Congress coalition, especially in regions where the SP traditionally holds influence.

Growing Strains Between INDIA and NDA Alliances

Pallavi Patel’s collaboration with AIMIM and the Azad Samaj Party could weaken the SP-Congress's chances of consolidating their vote base, creating further divisions in the opposition. Additionally, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), another player in Uttar Pradesh’s political arena, is also expected to contest these by-elections aggressively, further fracturing the vote.

Splintering of opposition votes could benefit the BJP

This splintering of opposition votes could inadvertently benefit the BJP, as a divided vote between SP-Congress, Patel’s alliance, and the BSP would make it easier for the ruling party to retain its hold on these assembly seats. 

However, there is another possibility: Pallavi Patel’s entry into the race could attract voters who are dissatisfied with both SP-Congress and BJP. Such voters, previously leaning towards the BJP due to a lack of alternatives, may now gravitate towards Patel, which could hurt the BJP’s chances as well.

As the by-elections approach, the political scene in Uttar Pradesh is becoming increasingly unpredictable. With key players like Pallavi Patel, AIMIM, and Chandrashekhar Azad entering the fray, the outcome of the elections is far from certain. Both the SP-Congress and the BJP will need to recalibrate their strategies to account for these new alliances and the potential voter shifts they may cause. Ultimately, the by-elections could provide critical insights into the evolving political landscape of Uttar Pradesh, setting the stage for future state and national elections.