Azad Samaj Party (ASP) leader Chandrashekhar Azad made a notable move on Saturday by announcing the party's candidate for the Milkipur assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh. This announcement comes ahead of the upcoming assembly by-elections, where 10 seats are up for grabs. With this decision, speculation has started brewing in the political corridors of Uttar Pradesh. If the Azad Samaj Party contests the elections with strength, it raises the question of which political party may suffer the most due to a potential shift in voter dynamics.
Fifth Candidate Announced for UP Assembly By-Elections
The Azad Samaj Party has now declared its candidate for the fifth assembly seat in the by-election scheduled across 10 seats in the state. Chandrashekhar Azad placed a significant bet by nominating Randhir Bharti Kori for the Milkipur assembly seat. His candidacy was made official on Saturday, and party leaders and workers were instructed to mobilize all their efforts to secure victory in this crucial election.
Randhir Bharti Kori, a long-standing party member, has been actively involved in the party's efforts and struggles over the years. His nomination reflects the party’s trust in its grassroots workers, as opposed to bringing in new or unfamiliar candidates. The political implications of this move are significant, especially when considering the potential division of Dalit votes in the region.
Chandrashekhar Azad had announced party's entry in by-poll race
Chandrashekhar Azad, who is also the Nagina Lok Sabha MP, was among the first to declare his party's entry into the by-election race for the 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. Since then, ASP has steadily announced its candidates. So far, the party has finalized candidates for five assembly seats, including Zahid Hussain for the Mirapur assembly seat (Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha), Chaudhary Satpal Singh for Ghaziabad Sadar (Ghaziabad district), Haji Chand Babu for Kundarki assembly seat (Moradabad district), and Dhirendra Maurya for Manjhwa assembly seat (Mirzapur district).
On Saturday, Randhir Bharti Kori's candidacy was added to this growing list. His nomination is a crucial development, especially in the politically significant Ayodhya district. Kori’s candidacy has sparked debates about the potential division of Dalit votes in Milkipur, with questions emerging about who stands to lose the most in this altered electoral landscape.
The DY Equation and Its Impact on Political Outcomes
Milkipur is a significant seat, with approximately 80,000 Yadavs and 1,20,000 Dalit voters, both of whom hold considerable electoral sway. Traditionally, the support of these two communities has been crucial in securing a win in the constituency. In the past, Yadav and Dalit voters played a key role in the victory of Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Avadhesh Prasad. These communities’ votes are often seen as a decisive factor in determining the electoral outcomes in this region.
Possibility of the Dalit vote splitting
However, with the ASP fielding its candidate, there is now a possibility of the Dalit vote splitting, which could reshape the election dynamics. Historically, a unified Dalit-Yadav (DY) vote bank has been instrumental in delivering victories to the SP. The division of Dalit votes could significantly alter this equation and impact the chances of success for major contenders.
Who Will Bear the Brunt of ASP’s Entry?
The entry of the Azad Samaj Party and its candidate, Randhir Bharti Kori, into the fray has introduced a new layer of complexity to the upcoming election. Many political analysts believe that a divided Dalit vote could be detrimental to the Samajwadi Party, which traditionally benefits from a consolidated Dalit-Yadav support base.
In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to successfully woo Dalit voters and secure their support, leading to SP’s defeat in the region. This time around, the BJP was again strategizing to attract Dalit voters to counter the SP's dominance in Milkipur. However, with Chandrashekhar Azad and ASP entering the race, these plans may face setbacks. The division of Dalit votes could weaken the BJP’s chances, as well as disrupt the SP’s usual winning coalition in the constituency.
The announcement of Randhir Bharti Kori’s candidacy for the Milkipur assembly seat by the Azad Samaj Party has intensified the political contest in Uttar Pradesh. As the by-elections approach, the battle for Dalit votes is set to be a defining factor. Whether ASP’s entry will harm the prospects of SP or derail BJP's plans remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the political landscape in Milkipur and beyond is about to witness a significant shift.
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