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15 Jan 2025

Delhi Assembly Election-2025: These are Tough Seats for BJP; Can the Saffron Party Surmount the Challenges


Voting for 70 assembly seats in Delhi is set for 5 February, with results to be announced on 8 February. The electoral battle is primarily between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), though Congress may also pose challenges in certain constituencies.


Muslim voters play a key role 


Muslim voters, who number around 21 lakh in Delhi, play a key role in determining election outcomes, particularly in 10-12 assembly constituencies where their population is more. Historically, these voters have leaned towards Congress, AAP, and smaller parties, while BJP has struggled to gain their support.


In the 2013 assembly elections, BJP only secured two out of these twelve influential seats—Babarpur and Karawal Nagar—despite being the largest party at the time. The six assembly seats where Muslim voters are particularly influential include Seelampur (50%), Matia Mahal (48%), Okhla (43%), Mustafabad (36%), Ballimaran (38%), and Babarpur (35%). AAP won all six in the 2020 elections.


6 more seats with a notable Muslim voter presence 


Besides, there are six more seats with a notable Muslim voter presence that could sway results: Seemapuri (25%), Gandhinagar (22%), Chandni Chowk (20%), Sadar Bazar (20%), Vikaspuri (20%), and Karawal Nagar (20%). The Muslim community's influence is also evident in areas like Bavna, Jamia Nagar, and Shahdara.


AIMIM may impact vote share of Cong, AAP


As the elections approach, AAP and Congress are actively seeking to appeal to Muslim voters, with both parties including promises in their manifestos aimed at addressing the community's interests. The presence of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the elections may further complicate the voting landscape, potentially impacting the vote shares of AAP and Congress. The outcome of this election will hinge significantly on the preferences of Muslim voters in Delhi.

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