Global Food Crisis: Is world heading toward a mega-famine? US-Israel-Iran war could make food vanish from your plate—45 million people at risk
US-Israel-Iran War and the Global Food Crisis: The tension currently prevailing in West Asia is rapidly evolving into a global food crisis—one whose repercussions could soon reach your very kitchen. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), if this conflict persists in its current form until June, an additional 45 million people worldwide could face severe hunger. This figure would push the already alarming current level of 319 million people to even greater heights.
The Epicenter of the Crisis: The Strait of Hormuz
At the heart of this entire crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical maritime trade routes. Since the commencement of US-Israeli strikes on February 28, the flow of humanitarian aid and commercial supplies through this region has been disrupted. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas passes through this narrow waterway. Following indications from Iran that it might effectively "close" this route, crude oil prices have doubled. For security reasons, ships are being diverted to longer, alternative routes, resulting in an increase of approximately 18% in freight costs.
Rising crude oil prices have a direct impact on the agricultural sector as well—increasing the costs associated with operating tractors, irrigation, and transporting produce to market centers.
The Real Pressure Point: Not Just Oil, But Urea
While the focus in this conflict may currently be on oil prices, the greatest—and often overlooked—threat to food security is the looming fertilizer crisis. Approximately half of the urea consumed globally reaches international markets via the Gulf nations, passing specifically through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar alone accounts for nearly 14% of the world's total urea production.
Qatar has halted production at several of its major urea manufacturing plants
Due to disruptions in the supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Qatar has been forced to halt production at several of its major urea manufacturing plants. This very shortage of gas has also compelled India to scale back production at several of its own urea plants, as domestic gas availability has plummeted to approximately 70% of normal levels. In neighboring Bangladesh, several factories have already shut down due to gas rationing. Consequently, the export prices of urea from the Middle East have surged by approximately 40% in recent weeks and now stand nearly 60% higher than last year.
The main sowing season is currently underway in the Northern Hemisphere
This crisis has struck the world at an extremely inopportune moment. The main sowing season is currently underway in the Northern Hemisphere (spanning from mid-February to early May). Farmers require the highest volume of fertilizers during this period to ensure a bountiful harvest. If fertilizers become prohibitively expensive or simply unavailable, farmers will inevitably reduce their usage. This will have a direct impact on the yields of major crops such as rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans.
India sources over 40% of its fertilizer requirements from the Middle East
India—which fulfills over 40% of its fertilizer requirements through imports from the Middle East—is a major exporter of rice and wheat. Brazil, on the other hand, relies almost entirely on imported fertilizers for its soybean production. Even a marginal decline in the agricultural output of such nations could significantly disrupt the global food market.
Rising agricultural costs and declining production
The ultimate impact of rising agricultural costs and diminishing production falls directly upon consumers. As the supply of wheat and rice dwindles, market shortages will emerge, potentially leading to a rapid escalation in prices. In major economies like India, the burden of fertilizer subsidies on the government will increase—a cost that may eventually manifest as broader inflation.
Global food supplies were already under strain due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and this new crisis now threatens to further destabilize that fragile system.