West Bengal Assembly Elections-2026: BJP seeking to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment and Modi's charisma, but can it get better of Mamata's combative persona?
West Bengal Assembly Elections-2026: Voting in West Bengal will take place in two phases on April 23 and 29.
Led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the TMC has remained in power in the state for over a decade. The party's greatest strength lies in Mamata Banerjee's commanding and combative persona, which consistently overshadows opposition parties in state politics. Mamata has successfully established herself as a towering figure at the state level and as the voice of the opposition at the national level.
The TMC also possesses a robust organizational structure. The party's cadres are spread across every corner of the state—from villages to cities—reaching down to the very booth level. Through Panchayats and local committees, the party has further fortified its network.
TMC has successfully wooed women, rural voters, and EWS
Furthermore, the TMC has successfully wooed women, rural voters, and economically weaker sections through various welfare schemes such as Lakshmi Bhandar, Kanyashree, and Swasthya Sathi.
TMC grappling with anti-incumbency wave
However, the TMC also faces certain vulnerabilities. After spending over 15 years in power, the party is now grappling with an anti-incumbency wave. In several districts, administrative discontent, allegations of corruption, and growing resentment against party leaders are on the rise.
Factionalism within the party has also emerged as a major challenge, characterized by rivalries among district-level leaders and internal power struggles for political influence.
BJP seeking to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment
This time around, the BJP is seeking to capitalize on the anti-incumbency sentiment as well as the charismatic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party has consolidated its foothold through Hindutva-based polarization, while simultaneously giving prominence to issues concerning corruption and law and order. Over the past decade, the BJP has successfully established itself as the principal opposition party in the state by attracting traditional voters of the Left Front and the Congress.
BJP's vote share has surged to over 39 percent
The BJP's electoral trajectory has now taken a positive turn. The party's vote share has surged to over 39 percent, and with a tally of 12 MPs and more than 65 MLAs, it has effectively cemented its position as a formidable force in the state's political landscape. However, the party also faces certain weaknesses.
Factionalism within the BJP's Bengal unit
Factionalism within the BJP's Bengal unit is a major issue—one that has already undermined the party's performance in previous elections. Furthermore, the TMC's narrative portraying the BJP as an "outsider" party is proving detrimental to its prospects. The BJP's North Indian image, coupled with an excessive emphasis on the NRC, could also alienate various demographic groups, such as the Matua community.
CPI (M)'s Existential Crisis
The Communist Party of India (Marxist)—CPI(M)—is currently fighting a battle for survival in West Bengal. While the party aims to gain some ground in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, its performance in the 2021 Assembly elections was notably lackluster.
The CPI(M), which governed the state for 34 years until 2011, has seen its vote share plummet to a mere 4.73 percent. Key among the party's weaknesses are its shrinking mass base and an aging leadership—factors that could pose significant challenges for the party in the upcoming elections.
Congress Also Fighting for Survival
This time around, the Congress party has decided to contest the elections independently, having severed its alliance with the CPI (M). Although the party did not achieve any significant success in the 2021 elections, its influence remains intact in certain pockets of North and Central Bengal.
If the Congress conducts an effective election campaign in these regions, it could prove pivotal to the party's resurgence. However, the Congress also grapples with major internal weaknesses—such as organizational decay and defections—which are further eroding the party's foothold within the state.