India's claim to permanent membership in the UN Security Council may be boosted if it overtakes China to become the world's most populous country in 2023, the UN's top population official said.
The World Population Prospects 2022 report released on Monday said India is set to overtake China as the world's most populous country next year. According to the report, India's population will be 1.412 billion in 2022 compared to China's 1.426 billion.
India, which will overtake China as the world's most populous nation by 2023, is expected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, far more than China's 1.317 billion people at mid-century.
The report, compiled by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, states that the global population is expected to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022. one percent in 2020.
The latest projections from the United Nations suggest that the world population could increase to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 1980s and remain at that level until 2100.
The director of the population division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), John Wilmoth, said on Monday that India's emergence as the most populous country could lead to "certain demands on things".
"What is the significance of being the largest population in the world? I think you have some claims on things. I wonder what will happen in relation to the discussion about the roles in the United Nations and the roles of the five permanent members of the Security Council.
"If India becomes the biggest country, they may think that it gives them the right to be part of, as they argued, they should be part of that group (a permanent member of the Security Council) anyway. But you know, it can strengthen their claim,” Mr. Wilmoth said when asked about India's influence overtaking China during a press conference to launch the report.
India has spearheaded a years-long effort to reform the Security Council, arguing that it rightfully deserves a seat as a permanent member of the Council, which in its current form does not represent the geopolitical realities of the 21st century.
Mr. Wilmoth said that in terms of development implications, it is important to note that China's population reduction has taken place in a more drastic way.
The country “in the 1970s and 1980s put policies in place that were very effective in reducing the birth rate and that led to very sharp changes in the population, slowing down growth very quickly.
It also reversed the age distribution, and now in China they are worried about the most difficult thing - the nature of the age distribution. More and more elderly people compared to the rest of the population, a UN official said.
"India had a much smoother transition that reduced fertility more slowly. That means there aren't the same discontinuities in historical patterns, and there hasn't been the same rapid aging of the population, although aging will come." there too."
"But it's going to be a more gradual process. And in some ways, it may be better to manage, a better circumstance, in the long run, for the economy to have that kind of more gradual demographic change than the very rapid changes that happened in China." ' said Mr. Wilmoth.
Patrick Gerland, head of the Population Estimates and Projections Section, Population Division, said China was able to conduct a census in 2020 and India had planned to conduct a census in 2021, but it was postponed due to the pandemic.
"So once India is able to do another census and new information becomes available, we will be able to use that information to reassess," Gerland said.
The report found that the world's two most populous regions in 2022 were East and Southeast Asia with 2.3 billion people, accounting for 29 percent of the global population, and Central and South Asia with 2.1 billion, accounting for 26 percent of the global population. total world population.
China and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, each with more than 1.4 billion in 2022.
More than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
"Different rates of population growth among the world's largest countries will change their order of size: for example, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023," the report said.
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