16 May 2023

Delay Likely In Monsoon 2023 Over Kerala; Hot Weather May Continue Till Late June In North, Central India

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon, which normally reaches Kerala by June 1, is likely to arrive slightly later this year.


According to private weather forecaster Skymet Weather, the onset date of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala this year is expected on 07th June with an error margin of +/- 3 days. The normal date of arrival of Monsoon in Kerala is 1 June. The onset will be delayed by about a week and the advancement slightly sluggish over Peninsular India.  


Skymet Weather said hot weather will continue till late June this year over central and northern parts of the country. This may not augur well for Kharif sowing.

A powerful cyclone 'FABIEN' is moving over the South Indian Ocean. The hurricane-strength weather system will take nearly one week to clear the area. This storm is restricting the build-up of the Monsoon stream. 


Monsoon onset over Kerala will be on June 4: IMD


However, as per the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2023 monsoon onset over Kerala will be on June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days.


On the other hand the Skymet Weather said, the Arabian Sea continues to host an anticyclone over the central parts in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This acts as a deterrent for the smooth streaming of Monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea to the West Coast.  There are no visible signs of establishing typical low-level jet (LLJ) of westerly winds, considered essential for the onset of Monsoon.

The mainland onset of Monsoon has a standard deviation of 7 days. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was on 29th May in 2018 & 2022 and the most delayed on 08th June 2019. The weather models suggest strengthening of sea conditions supporting monsoon surge around 07th June 2023. A lag of +/- 3 days thereafter is quite normal for the commencement of weather activity along and off the Kerala-Karnataka coast.

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