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5 Oct 2024

Congress Poised for Victory in Haryana, May Miss Majority in Jammu and Kashmir: Exit Poll Analysis


According to a poll of exit polls, the Congress is poised to end the decade-long rule of the BJP in Haryana, with exit polls suggesting the party will secure enough seats to form the next government. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, a Congress-National Conference alliance is leading the race but is likely to fall just short of the majority needed to govern, indicating a possible fractured mandate.


Congress Set to Regain Power in Haryana


Haryana's 90 assembly seats went to the polls in a single phase on October 5, with the majority mark set at 46. Four major exit polls suggest that Congress is positioned to secure a comfortable victory, potentially ending the 10-year BJP reign in the state.


The aggregate of these exit polls indicates that Congress is expected to win around 55 seats, comfortably surpassing the majority threshold. Initial exit polls, released shortly after polling closed at 6 p.m., predicted an even larger sweep for Congress, with the party projected to win 57 seats. Here's a breakdown of the predictions from various pollsters:


Matrize: Congress is projected to win between 55-62 seats, BJP 18-24, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 3-6 seats, while others may claim 2-5 seats.


Peoples Pulse: Congress is expected to secure between 49-61 seats, BJP 20-32, INLD 2-3, and others 3-5 seats.


Dhruv Research: Congress is likely to bag 50-64 seats, BJP 22-32 seats, and others 2-8 seats.


Dainik Bhaskar: Congress is predicted to win 44-54 seats, BJP 15-29, INLD 1-5, and others 4-9 seats.


These numbers suggest a significant setback for the ruling BJP, which could manage only 14 seats according to initial exit polls. The INLD and other smaller parties are likely to play a minimal role in determining the political outcome, with most exit polls indicating low seat counts for these groups.


Congress-NC Alliance Ahead in Jammu & Kashmir, But Short of Majority


In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections were held for 90 assembly seats following a delimitation process, the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is currently leading but is expected to fall short of a majority. The exit polls predict that the alliance will win 43 seats, just three short of the required 46 for a clear majority. This outcome could result in a hung assembly, leading to complex coalition negotiations in the days following the official results announcement.


Despite the projected lead of the Congress-NC alliance, the results hint at a fractured mandate in the state, which has been under direct central rule since August 2019, following the abrogation of Article 370. A hung assembly could lead to extended negotiations between parties as they try to cobble together a workable majority.


Broader Political Implications


The exit polls for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are being closely watched, as their outcomes could have broader implications for national politics. The results, expected to be officially declared by the Election Commission on October 8, may provide a glimpse into the mood of the electorate ahead of other crucial state elections later this year, including in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

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