The upcoming Jharkhand Assembly elections, set to be held in two phases on November 13 and 20, 2024, have turned into a highly anticipated political contest. With results scheduled for November 23, the state's political landscape is witnessing major shifts, with the defection of Champai Soren, a close confidant of Chief Minister Hemant Soren, to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
JMM formed alliance with Cog & RJD in 2019
In the 2019 Jharkhand assembly elections, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) formed an alliance with Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The JMM emerged as the largest party, winning 30 seats, and together with its coalition partners, it successfully formed the government. For nearly four years, the coalition functioned smoothly, but 2023 marked the beginning of significant turbulence in the state’s politics.
Hemant Soren's Legal Troubles and Resignation
The situation took a dramatic turn on January 31, 2024, when Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren was questioned by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) for nearly seven hours in connection with a money laundering case related to an alleged land scam. Following the interrogation, Soren submitted his resignation to Governor CP Radhakrishnan and was subsequently arrested by the ED.
In response to Hemant Soren's arrest, the ruling JMM-led coalition quickly rallied behind senior JMM leader Champai Soren, nominating him as the new Chief Minister.
Hemant Soren’s Return as CM
Despite his legal troubles, Hemant Soren made a stunning political comeback. After being granted bail, he was released from Ranchi's Birsa Munda Jail on June 28, 2024, after spending five months in custody. His release was marked by a grand public appearance, with his wife Kalpana Soren by his side. Addressing the people of Jharkhand, he claimed that his imprisonment was based on false charges and had caused significant challenges for the state during his absence.
Remarkably, within just 145 hours of his release from jail, Hemant Soren took the oath of office once again as the Chief Minister of Jharkhand. This quick turnaround came just months before the scheduled state elections. However, reports indicated that Champai Soren, who had been serving as the interim Chief Minister, was reluctant to step down from his position.
Champai is a prominent leader in tribal-dominated Kolhan region
In a shocking move, Champai Soren joined the BJP shortly after his removal from the Chief Minister's office. A member of the Santhal tribe, Champai Soren holds significant influence over this community, as well as other tribal groups in Jharkhand. He is considered a prominent leader in the tribal-dominated Kolhan region and is popularly referred to as the "Kolhan Tiger."
The Kolhan region consists of 14 assembly seats, and in the 2019 elections, the JMM secured 11 of these seats, while Congress won two, and an independent candidate claimed the remaining seat. With Champai Soren now aligned with the BJP, the political battle for these seats is expected to be fiercely competitive.
Some political experts remain skeptical
Some political experts, however, remain skeptical about Champai's influence after his defection. They argue that while Champai has embraced BJP’s political ideology, the voters in Kolhan may not shift their loyalties so easily. The strong tribal allegiance to Shibu Soren, a revered leader in Jharkhand, could also hinder BJP’s chances of winning over tribal voters.
The BJP’s struggle to attract tribal votes during the Lok Sabha elections further casts doubt on its ability to make inroads in Jharkhand’s assembly elections. Whether Champai Soren’s defection will significantly alter the political dynamics remains uncertain, but it has certainly injected a new element of intrigue into the contest.
Seat-Sharing Disputes and Alliance Tensions
Meanwhile, tensions are brewing within the ruling coalition over seat-sharing arrangements. Hemant Soren has reportedly demanded 49 seats for the JMM in the upcoming elections, leaving only 32 seats for Congress, RJD, and other allied parties to contest. In the 2019 elections, Congress alone contested 31 seats, winning 16, while the RJD contested 7 seats and secured only 1.
If the coalition partners fail to reach an agreement on seat distribution, there is a possibility that the JMM may decide to contest the elections independently, further complicating the political scenario in Jharkhand.
As the election dates draw near, all eyes are on Jharkhand’s shifting political alliances and the unpredictable outcome of this high-stakes contest.
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