A new equation is emerging in the political atmosphere of Bihar. On one hand, it is good news for the RJD-led Grand Alliance, on the other it is going to be a cause of worry for the NDA led by CM Nitish Kumar. If this happens, Nitish Kumar's chair may be shaken. It can also give a big blow to BJP.
In fact, it is being said that Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi's party AIMIM is fully prepared to join the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). There is a small issue of seat sharing, if it is resolved, then this AIMIM's entry in Alliance is confirmed. Although Owaisi's party wants to contest on 50 seats, but if the talks with RJD are finalized, then it will be ready to contest on fewer seats.
No one party can defeat communal forces alone: Akhtarul Iman
Akhtarul Iman, the state president of Owaisi's party and the only surviving MLA, has said that talks are going on and no negative response has come from the Grand Alliance. He said that there is no one party in Bihar that can defeat communal forces alone, so our effort is that everyone should go to the election unitedly.
Iman said that RJD-Congress will have to have a big heart, they will have to take a decision. When the matter is settled, then the matter will move forward. Our wish is that communal forces should be driven out of Bihar. A government should be formed for the benefit of Dalits, deprived and minorities, in which we have a stake.
What happened in the 2020 assembly elections?
Let us remind you of the 2020 assembly elections when Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) together formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front. In that election, Owaisi's party contested on 20 seats, BSP on 78 and RLSP on 99 seats. Owaisi's 5 MLAs won.
One MLA from BSP won who joined JDU and became a minister in the Nitish government. Kushwaha's party was out on zero. Owaisi's 5 MLAs reached the assembly by defeating RJD on two seats, BJP on two and VIP on one seat. In this, except Iman, the other four are now with RJD.
MY voters lean towards RJD
In Bihar, since the time of Lalu Yadav, MY (Muslim Yadav) voters have been leaning towards RJD and its supporting parties. In 2020, Owaisi had harmed RJD in Seemanchal as Muslim votes were divided. This caused loss to the Grand Alliance but AIMIM as well as BJP and JDU also benefited.
According to the caste-based survey conducted by the Nitish government, the population of Yadavs in Bihar is currently 14 percent and the number of Muslims is around 18 percent. Out of 100, 32 voters are from these two communities who have been strengthening Tejashwi. Apart from RJD, the Grand Alliance includes Congress, Left and Mukesh Sahni's VIP.
If Owaisi joins alliance, Muslim votes will not be divided
In case of an alliance between Owaisi and the Grand Alliance, the risk of division of Muslim votes will be reduced to a great extent.
Owaisi fighting separately can help Nitish in getting a majority, but if he comes together with Tejashwi, then a face-to-face contest between the two alliances is certain.
Prakash Kumar Pandey