IMD Forecast: Monsoon Rains Across India to be Below Normal in 2026; Which Regions Will Face Deficit Rainfall and Increased Heatwaves
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday released its second long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season, predicting below-normal rainfall in several parts of the country.
According to the forecast, India is likely to receive 90 percent of its 'Long Period Average' (LPA) rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent. Since the Southwest Monsoon is the primary source of rainfall for the country, this forecast has raised concerns regarding agriculture, water availability, and extreme weather conditions.
This forecast was announced during a press conference organized by the Meteorological Department.
Likelihood of Below-Normal Rainfall in Most Regions
The IMD stated that rainfall is expected to remain below normal in most parts of the country this season.
Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, said that rainfall in Northeast India is likely to remain close to normal, with rainfall estimated to range between 94 percent and 106 percent of the LPA.
However, Central India and the Southern Peninsular region are expected to receive less than 94 percent of normal rainfall, while Northwest India could receive less than 92 percent of the LPA.
This forecast is particularly concerning for the 'Monsoon Core Zone' (MCZ), which encompasses most of India's rain-dependent agricultural regions. The IMD indicated that there is a very high probability of rainfall remaining below normal in this zone throughout the season.
Rainfall May Remain Weak in June as Well
The Department has also predicted below-normal rainfall for the month of June, which marks the first month of the monsoon season. During this month, rainfall across the country is likely to remain below 92 percent of the LPA. On the other hand, isolated pockets across Northwest India, Northeast India, the Southern Peninsula, and Central India may experience above-normal rainfall during June.
Temperatures Expected to Remain Above Normal
Alongside subdued rainfall, the IMD has also warned that temperatures in most parts of the country are likely to remain above normal during June. Maximum temperatures are expected to exceed normal levels in many regions; however, some parts of Central, Northwest, and East India may experience temperatures slightly below normal. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal in most areas, with the exception of certain pockets in Northwest, Central, and adjoining Southern Peninsular India.
Increased Risk of Heatwaves
The IMD has forecast a higher-than-normal frequency of heatwave days across several states during June and the summer season.
States such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh are expected to experience a higher-than-usual number of heatwave days. Severe heatwave conditions may also prevail in certain pockets of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Conversely, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are likely to witness a lower number of heatwave days this year.
El Niño Conditions Developing
The Meteorological Department has also indicated that the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean is gradually transitioning toward El Niño conditions.
According to projections from new weather models, an El Niño event is likely to develop during the Southwest Monsoon season. Such conditions are typically associated with subdued monsoon rainfall in India.
Concerns Regarding Agriculture and Water Supply
Experts warn that below-normal rainfall could adversely impact agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and overall water availability across several parts of the country. A weak monsoon also heightens the likelihood of drought-like conditions, severe heatwaves, and increased pressure on drinking water resources. The IMD released its first long-range forecast for the monsoon on April 13, which also indicated below-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season.