Will Monsoon-2026 in MP be weak this year; will El Niño disrupt state's weather cycle; which dists will experience below-normal rainfall, check IMD predictions
Monsoon-2026: After nearly seven years of abundant rainfall, Madhya Pradesh may witness a weak monsoon this year, raising concerns for both the state government and farmers. According to the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the active El Niño phenomenon could lead to below-normal rainfall and drought-like conditions in 47 districts, including Bhopal, Indore and Jabalpur.
Meteorologists say monsoon winds are moving at a slower pace this year, which may delay the arrival of monsoon in the state by 5 to 8 days. Instead of its usual schedule, monsoon clouds are expected to enter Madhya Pradesh only after June 20. Rainfall in June is likely to remain significantly below normal, though weather experts expect some improvement in July.
The main reason behind the weak monsoon is the El Niño effect in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño causes ocean temperatures to rise abnormally, weakening and blocking cool, moisture-laden winds that move toward India. This disruption slows monsoon activity and reduces rainfall across large parts of the country.
Rain Forecast
The average monsoon rainfall in Madhya Pradesh is 37.3 inches, but this year it is expected to drop to 30 to 32 inches. The monsoon forecast by district will be as follows:
Normal or above-normal rainfall: Gwalior, Bhind, Neemuch, Damoh, Anuppur, Ujjain, Alirajpur, and Barwani (8 districts in total). Farming and waterlogging conditions will be normal in these areas.
10% to 15% deficit: Ashoknagar, Sagar, Narmadapuram, Raisen, Mandla, Dindori, Khargone, Burhanpur, and Narsinghpur. Early sowing may be affected.
Rainfall of up to 90 percent is forecast for the remaining districts, including Bhopal, Indore, and Jabalpur.
Crops will be directly affected
The possibility of low rainfall this year has raised concerns among agricultural experts. Along with declining crop production, the state could face a serious drinking water crisis. Ironically, despite record-breaking rainfall last year, people in major cities like Indore and Gwalior are still protesting for water. Consequently, this year's indifference to the monsoon will only worsen the water crisis in the future.