Will Siddaramaiah's Influence Wane After Stepping Down as CM? What Arduous Task Cong Faces in Karnataka? Is DK Shivakumar's True Test Just Beginning?
Bengaluru: Although Siddaramaiah has vacated his office after stepping down as the Chief Minister of Karnataka, his influence shows no signs of waning. This reality is emerging as the greatest challenge facing the Congress party in the state following the leadership transition in favor of D.K. Shivakumar.
Political analysts believe that Siddaramaiah's strong hold over legislators, backward class groups, and grassroots workers will continue to shape the direction of the state Congress, even after the formal transfer of power.
The Congress High Command is keen to avoid antagonizing Siddaramaiah's influential 'AHINDA' social coalition—comprising minorities, backward classes, and Dalits—which has served as the bedrock of the party's electoral success in Karnataka.
Known as a 'seasoned strategist' of Karnataka politics, Siddaramaiah continues to command the loyalty of Congress legislators and party workers, despite having relinquished his official post.
Siddaramaiah's decision to remain active in Karnataka politics—rather than accepting a role in the Rajya Sabha—sends a clear signal that he intends to maintain his direct influence over the state's political affairs.
How Cong will balance two centers of power
The Congress leadership now faces the arduous task of balancing two centers of power: Shivakumar's control over the government administration, and Siddaramaiah's influence over the party's social and organizational base.
Furthermore, Congress strategists fear that this leadership transition could potentially erode the support of backward classes and minorities—segments of society that have remained steadfastly aligned with Siddaramaiah for years.
Need to avoid internal strife
It is also believed that the Congress is acutely conscious of the need to avoid internal strife akin to that witnessed in states like Rajasthan or Punjab, where factionalism ultimately resulted in significant electoral setbacks for the party. Experts suggest that, even under the new dispensation, many legislators may maintain their political proximity to Siddaramaiah—particularly given his enduring mass appeal and electoral credibility.
According to political commentators, Siddaramaiah remains one of the Congress party's most prominent OBC leaders at the national level, wielding significant influence in candidate selection, welfare politics, and the mobilization of grassroots workers.
Shivakumar's true test
Analysts believe that Shivakumar's true test may begin after he assumes office, when he will need to ensure administrative control while simultaneously preventing Mr. Siddaramaiah's camp from evolving into a parallel political power structure within the Karnataka Congress.