4 Dec 2023

BJP finds renewed strength with wins in three states; has saffron party neutralized opposition's primary weapon caste census

Following a significant setback in Karnataka, the BJP finds renewed strength with victories in three crucial Hindi heartland states, setting the stage for the 2024 elections. The party, armed with the winning formula of 'Modi guarantees' and a focus on women voters, enters the electoral arena with confidence.

The results deliver a harsh blow to the Congress, disrupting its plans to secure the Hindi belt and maintain a viable opposition challenge in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The INDIA alliance faces the imperative of enhanced coordination and messaging control to counter the assertive BJP in 2024.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his triumphant speech at the BJP headquarters in Delhi, declares that the hat-trick of victories ensures a guarantee for 2024. Modi, once again proving his political prowess, showcases the BJP as a dynamic force capable of adapting strategies to overcome challenges.

BJP has neutralized opposition's primary weapon the caste census

The BJP asserts that it has neutralized the Congress and opposition's primary weapon—the caste census—by garnering support in the three influential states. The previously contentious issue of caste census, which gained traction in Bihar, the only Hindi heartland state not under BJP control, is now seemingly defused.

With the December 3 mandate, the saffron party is poised to take an assertive stance in the 2024 elections. Modi and the BJP's pre-election messaging emphasized four crucial castes: women, youth, farmers, and the poor, dismissing attempts to divide the country along caste lines.

Well-organized ground machinery can defy anti-incumbency

A notable lesson from these elections is that well-organized ground machinery can defy anti-incumbency sentiments. The BJP's disciplined cadre and extensive outreach to the tribal community, coupled with strategic announcements, contributed to its success. In contrast, the Congress struggled due to a lack of a robust ground cadre.

Multiple CM aspirants

The BJP featured Modi as its primary mascot while contesting under collective leadership. This approach produced multiple Chief Minister aspirants. The challenge now lies in selecting Chief Ministers, with leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje, and others in contention.

BJP's improved performance even in Telangana

Telangana emerges as the sole consolation for the Congress, yet even there, the BJP's improved performance raises hopes for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The results suggest that in a direct contest between the BJP and Congress, the saffron party holds an advantage, securing higher vote shares in key states.

To bridge the divide, Congress may need the support of allies in the face of an increasingly dominant BJP.

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