15 Apr 2024

IMD Prediction for Monsoon 2024: Above normal rainfall likely in 25 states including MP, these are other important predictions

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that this year's monsoon from June to September is forecasted to surpass the normal levels. IMD defines rainfall between 104 to 110 percent as exceeding normal levels, which bodes well for agricultural prospects.

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan are expecrted to receive more than normal monsoon rains. Odisha, Assam may experience belkow normal precipitation. 

According to IMD, there's a possibility of experiencing 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall in 2024, equivalent to 87 cm. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season stands at 868.6 mm or 86.86 cm, indicating the expected total rainfall during this period.

Skymet, a private weather agency, previously forecasted a normal monsoon, suggesting rainfall between 96 to 104% during the four months from June to September.

Typically, the monsoon makes its onset in India around June 1, entering through Kerala, and concludes its cycle by the end of September, as it retreats via Rajasthan after four months of rainfall.

Above normal rainfall expected in these 25 states

More than normal rainfall is likely in these 25 states: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman-Diu.

Normal rainfall expected in 4 states, below normal in 6 states

Normal rainfall expected in 4 states: Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Below normal rainfall expected in 6 states: Odisha, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Pace of monsoon will be slow in the beginning

The pace of monsoon will be slow in the beginning (June-July), but it will be compensated in the second phase (August-September). IMD said that the next outlook regarding monsoon will be released in the last week of May.

According to scientists, the number of days with heavy rain is decreasing, while the number of days with very heavy rain, i.e. the number of days with very heavy rain in a short period of time, is increasing. Therefore there are frequent droughts and floods.

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