Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, has released its monsoon forecast for 2024. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 102% ( with an error margin of +/- 5% ) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four-month long period from June to September.
The spread of normal is likely to be 96-104% of LPA. In its earlier foreshadow released on January 12, 2024, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2024 to be ‘normal’ and retains the same.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “ El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon."
However, monsoon season may be slightly weak in the beginning, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the initial phase.
Core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and MP will receive adequate rainfall
In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West, and Northwest regions. Core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal will be at risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.
According to Skymet, monsoon probabilities for June to September period are:
10% chance of excess ( seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
20% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
45% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
15% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
10% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follow :
June – 95% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3mm)
50% chance of normal
20% chance of above normal
30% chance of below normal
July – 105% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5mm)
60% chance of normal
20% chance of above normal
20% chance of below normal
August – 98% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9mm)
50% chance of normal
20% chance of above normal
30% chance of below normal
September – 110% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9mm)
60% chance of normal
20% chance of above normal
20% chance of below normal
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