The specter of factionalism that impacted the Haryana elections now looms over Maharashtra, casting a shadow on the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance's prospects. While the MVA performed well in the recent Lok Sabha elections-2024, the alliance now faces a significant internal struggle in candidate selection for the Maharashtra Assembly elections.
This internal discord has led to concerns that the Maharashtra elections could mirror the Haryana experience, where overconfidence and infighting caused significant setbacks. The Haryana Assembly elections saw severe internal conflicts, notably between Congress leaders Kumari Selja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda, which disrupted party cohesion.
Numerous Congress rebels entered the race, ultimately contributing to the party’s losses across several constituencies. In Maharashtra, similar fears have emerged, with divisions threatening both major alliances, the MVA and the BJP-led Mahayuti.
Rebels Impacting Both Major Alliances
The struggle to maintain unity is not unique to the MVA. Both the MVA and Mahayuti alliances are grappling with rebel candidates and internal tensions. The final day for filing nominations revealed a notable number of independent candidates, with 150 rebels participating in the race. These defections have added pressure on both alliances, raising the stakes for each in terms of persuading their rebels to withdraw by November 4, the last date for nomination withdrawal. The alliance that succeeds in minimizing its rebel count is likely to gain a strategic advantage.
At present, neither the BJP-led Mahayuti nor the MVA seems to have made significant headway in curbing defections.
Both coalitions report a full slate of candidates, with the MVA filing 286 nominations across 288 seats. These comprise 103 Congress candidates, 96 from the Uddhav Thackeray faction, and 87 from the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). The BJP-led Mahayuti, on the other hand, has fielded 284 candidates, facing intra-alliance competition on five seats while leaving two seats without candidates.
High-Profile Rebels: Gopal Shetty and Sameer Bhujbal
The Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, faces defection issues in key constituencies. In Borivali, Mumbai, BJP leader Gopal Shetty is running as a rebel candidate against the party’s official candidate, Sanjay Upadhyay. Likewise, Sameer Bhujbal, nephew of MVA leader Chhagan Bhujbal, has filed as an independent in Nandgaon. These prominent entries underscore the discontent simmering within the BJP-led alliance.
Similarly, the MVA is dealing with factional clashes in several constituencies. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has nominated candidates in constituencies where the Congress, another MVA member, also plans to run. Still, it is being said from both the alliances that senior leaders are busy convincing the rebels.
Efforts to Mitigate Internal Challenges
Both alliances have reportedly deployed senior leaders to persuade their respective rebel candidates to withdraw from the race. However, given the volume of candidates running independently, the situation remains tense. Despite concerted efforts, the prevailing sentiment is that convincing the rebels remains a formidable task, which could affect the alliances’ electoral outcomes.
November 4: A Decisive Date
The November 4 deadline for nomination withdrawals is now critical, as it will provide a clearer picture of each alliance's likely losses due to defection. At this stage, it is uncertain how many rebel candidates will withdraw, or if these factions could impact results. The Shivaji Nagar seat is one notable example, with Nawab Malik, a prominent leader, has entered the race, adding to the MVA’s internal challenges.
As Maharashtra’s assembly elections approach, the stakes are high for both alliances. With a significant number of rebels entering the fray, Maharashtra’s election landscape reflects the broader struggle for party unity and strategic coordination. The final weeks leading up to election day will reveal whether these alliances can effectively address their internal rifts or if factionalism and defection will determine the outcome in key constituencies.
(PRAKASH KUMAR PANDEY)
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