18 Dec 2022

Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2023: Gujarat Model in MP, How Many BJP MLAs Could Be Denied Ticket

Bhopal: After the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, the BJP is eyeing those states where elections are to be held in 2023. Madhya Pradesh is also among them. In such a situation, the central organization of BJP has fixed its eyes on MP. 

The BJP organization is not ready to take any kind of risk due to the anti-incumbency wave in MP. In such a situation, election preparations are being made here on Gujarat model. On the lines of Gujarat, in MP too, BJP can cut tickets of about 45 to 60 sitting MLAs.

This time BJP can bet on the youth

After the success in Gujarat, many sitting MLAs of BJP are worried about being denied ticket. Especially those MLAs whose performance was below average. To repeat its success story, BJP can implement Gujarat model in those states where assembly elections are to be held in 2023.

The face of the CM changed a year ago in Gujarat. Then the party made changes in the departments of the ministers as well. Not only this, tickets of more than 30 sitting MLAs were cut. In their place, the youths were fielded. The effect of this was that the party won 156 seats in the assembly with 182 MLAs.

Survey has been done in Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has conducted a three-level survey to check the performance of its MLAs. The MLAs whose performance was found to be poor in the first survey were given advice. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan himself had convened a meeting of the Legislature Party in November. Shivraj had said that there will be two more surveys before the elections. Conduct and behavior have to be improved. Only then will the MLAs' tickets be decided in the 2023 assembly elections. 

In fact, the party leadership is also accepting that Mission 2023 is not easy for the BJP. There is very little difference between the seats of BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh. Even after all the defections, the BJP has 127 MLAs and the Congress has 96 MLAs in the House.

Tickets will be cut on the basis of survey

BJP has decided to cut tickets on the basis of these surveys only. The Gujarat model has ensured that this formula will be tried in the coming elections as well. BJP conducts survey before every election and it is not hidden from anyone. Its results also become the basis for denying ticket to sitting MLAs. The tickets of MLAs and ministers with weak performance were also cut last time. Now BJP has got tremendous success in Gujarat, so definitely BJP will bet on the youths along with maintaining caste and regional balance in MP.

Negative reports of many MLAs

If sources are to be believed, the BJP has conducted a survey of MLAs in Madhya Pradesh as well. MP Chief Shivraj Singh Chouhan and party state president VD Sharma have warned such MLAs whose reports have come negative. The party will not refrain from cutting the tickets of such MLAs. The BJP has learnt a lesson from the results of the 2018 assembly elections and is not ready to take any risk by giving a chance to MLAs with anti-incumbency in the coming elections in the year 2023. The party has finalized the names of about 50 such MLAs who can be denied ticket.

Tickets of third category MLAs in danger

According to party sources, three categories of MLAs have been made. The one who will definitely win the election. Others are those who can win with a little effort. Thirdly, no matter how hard the MLAs try, the party cannot win if they are fieldede. The tickets of these third category of MLAs will surely be cut. Along with this, BJP can also make many elderlyMLAs sit at home this time.

Shocking candidates could be seen in the field this time

The BJP leadership has surprised with the names of many candidates in the past. Pushyamitra Bhargava was elected for the post of mayor in Indore bypassing the political pundits and experts as well as the contenders. Bhargava had never contested an election before. Earlier, the BJP had surprised by making Sumitra Valmiki a candidate from Jabalpur for the Rajya Sabha elections. In such a situation, BJP can field many such faces in the assembly elections as well, which will be shocking.

Organization's eye on challenges

If we look at the vote share in the 2018 assembly elections also, BJP got 41.6 percent and Congress got 41.5 percent votes. However, after the by-elections in 2020 for 28 seats, the BJP's vote share increased. But the BJP high command is keeping an eye on the anti-incumbency trend and many other challenges before the party.

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