26 Dec 2022

Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2023: Will JAYS And AAP Hurt Congress' Prospects

Bhopal: Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2023 - Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti, or JAYS, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can harm the prospects of Congress in Madhya Pradesh in next year's polls.
AAP, which won 5 seats in the Gujarat Assembly elections and got 13 percent votes, is going to increase its focus on Madhya Pradesh.

JAYS front may contest on 85 seats

On the other hand, JAYS is preparing to form a front with Muslim, OBC and Dalit parties. This front will contest on at least 85 assembly seats. Out of these, 47 seats are reserved for tribals and 35 for Dalits.

AAP secured 7% votes in MP urban body polls

AAP secured up to 7% votes in the urban body elections in Madhya Pradesh. If it gets the same number of votes in the 2023 assembly elections, then it will be a clear loss to the Congress. Political analysts believe that if AAP gets 7 percent of the votes it will harm the Congress on 50 seats regardless of whether it wins seats in the state or not. In 2018, there were 50 seats where the victory or defeat was decided by a margin of less than 7%.

Split of anti-incumbency votes to benefit BJP

The division of anti-incumbency votes may give BJP advantage in 2023 in the same way as in Gujarat.
The Congress’ alliance with JAYS in the 2018 assembly elections was former MP Chief Minister Kamal Nath's masterstroke. 

JP was wiped out in Nimar region

Due to this alliance BJP was wiped out in Nimar region. In Nimar, the BJP could register its presence only in Khandwa district. Otherwise BJP had to suffer huge losses in Dhar, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Barwani, Khargone districts.

This time if JAYS contests independently then Congress will be harmed. Especially in the tribal seats, the presence of JAYS can hurt Congress.Congress leaders also believe that the 2023 assembly polls are a do or die for the party.

Hiralal Alawa’s front will hurt Nath’s strategy

Earlier this month, JAYS held a big meeting in Bhopal in the presence of Dr. Hiralal Alawa, in which 10 small groups participated. Dalit leader and former MP Dr. Budhsen Patel also participated in this meeting.
Dr. Hiralal wants to make a front of Dalit and tribal and backward classes in which Muslim organizations are also involved. MP Owaisi's party was also present in the meeting of JAYS. Any such front would hurt Kamal Nath's strategy tremendously. 

Forging alliance again with JAYS not easy for Cong

Kamal Nath is ready to forge an alliance with JAYS again, but the problem is that if Hiralal does so, JAYS will split.

This time JAYS will not agree to only one seat

The second thing is that this time JAYS will not agree to only one seat. Last time, JAYS had forged an alliance with the Congress by taking the Manawar seat. This time, if Dr. Hiralal Alawa forms an alliance, then Congress will have to give at least 5 seats.

BJP has helped in promoting AAP?

AAP's interference is also increasing in Madhya Pradesh. Political observers believe that the BJP has helped in promoting the AAP under a well-thought-out strategy. The AAP in Gujarat primarily focused on OBC voters. Its chief ministerial candidate Isudan Gadhvi came from the OBC community. Gujarat has 52 percent OBC voters. Isudan Gadhvi lost, but AAP did damage the Congress by making a dent in the OBC voters.

The AAP has spread its wings in Madhya Pradesh. One of its mayors has also won in the municipal elections. In these elections, AAP got 7% votes in some corporations. AAP is engaged in strengthening its network in MP. The Congress believes that the BJP is promoting the AAP in Madhya Pradesh as well.
The Congress is calling AAP as the B team of the BJP. Congress strategists believe that the BJP tried to divert the focus to the AAP by using the ED and the CBI.

AAP got exposure due to CBI, ED action

ED and CBI deliberately targeted Manish Sisodia. As a result AAP got good exposure on social media and electronic media. ED and CBI interrogated Manish Sisodia but did not arrest him despite alleged serious charges.
Because of this, Manish Sisodia got a chance to say that BJP is harassing him. Manish Sisodia repeatedly dared BJP to arrest him. Arvind Kejriwal also always says that Manish Sisodia is being harassed because of the Gujarat assembly elections. BJP also continuously aired videos of corruption of AAP, due to which the voters of Gujarat got the impression that BJP is losing the election to Aam Aadmi Party.

AAP caused huge loss to Cong in Gujarat

BJP leaders also attacked AAP more in their speeches. This encouraged the AAP and the big result was that in the Gujarat assembly elections, AAP caused a huge loss to the Congress by securing 13 percent votes. In Madhya Pradesh too, the BJP is working on a strategy to promote the Aam Aadmi Party.

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