10 Sept 2023

UP: 'India' vs 'NDA': What Ghosi by-election results signify?

Lucknow: Samajwadi Party (SP) has won the by-election in Ghosi assembly seat of Mau district of Uttar Pradesh.

Both BJP and SP had used their full strength to win the Ghosi assembly by-election. But was the Ghosi by-election a contest between ‘NDA’ and ‘INDIA’ or were other issues dominant in it?

Ghosi assembly seat was considered a direct contest between the opposition alliance 'India' and the BJP-led NDA. Here, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and Left did not field their candidates in support of the SP candidate.

After winning the Ghosi seat, Samajwadi Party chief and former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav has claimed that this is the victory of the 'India' alliance and the result of the upcoming elections will also be similar.

Muslim votes came almost completely in favor of SP

There is definitely some good news for 'India' in the Ghosi assembly result. Especially the Muslim vote coming almost completely in favor of the Samajwadi Party. The same happened in 'Dumri' assembly seat of Jharkhand, where JMM and not Asaduddin Owaisi's party got the votes of Muslims.

Ajay Singh believes that Mukhtar Ansari has had an influence in Ghosi, but despite his not being in SP, the Muslims of the area voted for SP, which shows that the minority community is trusting 'India'.

People do not trust those who switch parties

According to some commentators, it seems that people do not trust those who switch parties. Even party people do not trust leaders who switch parties. “This angers the workers already present in the party and also reduces the credibility of the leaders who change parties.”

There were basically three issues on Ghosi seat. The first issue was Dara Singh Chauhan's frequent change of party, due to which voters were angry. The second issue here was that of outsider versus local. People considered Dara Singh an outsider while people considered SP's Sudhakar Singh a local.

Sudhakar Singh had contested 2022 assembly elections as independent 

Sudhakar Singh had contested the 2022 assembly elections as an independent candidate. Even after this he remained at third place.

Ghosi seat is basically a seat of Muslim and backward voters. There are a large number of Muslim, Dalit, Rajbhar and Chauhan voters here.

Defeat of Om Prakash Rajbhar?

Political observers believe that Ghosi's defeat is basically the defeat of Om Prakash Rajbhar, president of SBSP, because this is his area. Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) had become a part of NDA in July this year. This raised BJP's confidence that it would win this seat.

The by-election is an indication that even the upper caste people are becoming disillusioned due to inflation and unemployment. Till now it was believed that the upper castes were with BJP. But this election has made it clear that inflation and unemployment are the biggest issues.

An attempt was being made to make religion an issue in UP following a statement by Swami Prasad Maurya, but the issues of inflation and unemployment proved to be the biggest issues in the elections. Recently, SP leader Swami Prasad Maurya had given a statement on Hindu religion, on which there was a lot of controversy.

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