13 May 2024

UP Lok Sabha Election-2024: Triangular contest on these seats due to 'Maya' factor in UP..! Who will get the benefit of BSP's Ekla Chalo?

UP Lok Sabha Election-2024: Triangular contest is being seen on most of the Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. Whereas there are other states where a direct contest is visible between the INDI alliance and the NDA. But in Uttar Pradesh, BSP has made the contest triangular on many seats. In fact, BSP chief Mayawati has decided to contest the elections without forming an alliance with any other party. 

However, this question is also floating in the political atmosphere that whether BSP will survive after the general elections of 2024? At the same time, political experts are also questioning which party will benefit from Mayawati's decision to contest elections alone and which party will suffer from it.

If we look at the political data, an interesting equation is visible in UP: Whenever BJP has risen in the state, BSP's graph has fallen and whenever BSP's graph has increased, BJP's graph has come down that is BJP lags behind.


Why does Mayawati not get the benefit of alliance?

Talking about the last elections, BSP and Samajwadi Party had contested together. Then BSP had got 10 seats. This time BSP is contesting elections alone on its own. It will be clear on June 4 whether BSP's go-it-alone strategy will benefit it or increase the electoral challenge for it. Before this, the question also arises that why BSP has entered the election field alone this time whereas last time BSP had benefited in alliance. However, party supremo Mayawati has been saying that BSP does not get any benefit in alliance with any party.

BJP's gain...BSP's loss

If we look at the results of the previous elections in UP, whenever BJP has got more seats, the graph of BSP has gone down i.e. its seats have decreased. 

This election is a battle for BSP's survival

Political analysts say that now this general election of 2024 is very special for BSP, this election is a battle for its survival. In the last 2019 elections, it contested the elections along with SP and won 10 seats. The performance of the party in the UP Assembly elections in 2022 was also very disappointing. This is the reason why this election is a fight for the survival of BSP this time.

This time the most important thing in the elections is that BSP can spoil the electoral equation of any alliance. Experts say that BSP's politics has always been against SP.  That is BSP cuts the votes of SP. In such a situation, BSP chief Mayawati feels that SP may not get the benefit of its alliance with Congress.

It is also being said that there are two most important reasons for the growth of BJP. First the OBC voters came with it. Since the Mandal movement, small castes had joined the BJP. The second big reason is that the core voters of BSP have left the party.

Rapid decline in BSP's vote bank

BSP chief Mayawati has been the Chief Minister four times in UP. BSP had secured more than 27 percent vote share in the year 2009. Its 20 MPs had also reached the Lok Sabha. However, BSP could not repeat this performance in 2014 nor did its seats improve after the alliance in 2019. In such a situation, there was a rapid decline in the vote bank of BSP. In the 2022 assembly elections, BSP's vote share had come down to just around 13 percent.

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