10 Apr 2023

Weather: Upcoming Monsoon Likely To Be Below Normal, Predicts Skymet

New Delhi: Skymet, India's leading private weather forecaster, has released its monsoon forecast for 2023. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be 'below normal' to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September. 

The spread of below normal  being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier forecast released on January 04, 2023, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par and now retains the same. 

Above normal/normal rainfall during last 4 seasons 

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, "Southwest monsoon observed  above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended.  Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large.  El Nino return may result in a weaker monsoon". 

Skymet has also predicted extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.

Gujarat, MP and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rain

In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of being rain deficit. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August. 

Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh , the agriculture bowl of North India, are likely to observe  less than normal rains during the 2nd half of the season.  

Below normal rains could affect county's agriculture-based economy

A below normal monsoon could affect county's agriculture-based economy and could lead to food inflation and food insecurity.

Crops in many pasrts of the country are already affected by unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms.

The monsoon accounts for around 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall and irrigates 60 per cent of its net sown area. Nearly half of the population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly. L:ess than normal rains invariably mean poor crop production and inflation.

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